https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/ Daily notes on markets, technology, and the capital moving between them. en-us Fri, 11 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-11-inflation-is-back-in-charge-ai-demand-still-runs-ahead-of/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-11-inflation-is-back-in-charge-ai-demand-still-runs-ahead-of/ AI companies cannot build capacity fast enough. Fri, 11 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-10-ai-spending-is-huge-rates-are-pushing-back/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-10-ai-spending-is-huge-rates-are-pushing-back/ Oracle booked more than $30B of AI cloud contracts in one quarter. Thu, 10 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-09-oil-tops-100-apple-folds-the-iphone/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-09-oil-tops-100-apple-folds-the-iphone/ Oil is back above $100 as the US and Iran battle for control of a route that carried about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas before the war. Wed, 09 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-07-oil-near-97-puts-rate-hikes-back-on-the-table/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-07-oil-near-97-puts-rate-hikes-back-on-the-table/ Brent crude is at a six-week high near $97. Mon, 07 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-06-higher-rates-are-starting-to-bite/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-06-higher-rates-are-starting-to-bite/ McDonald’s trades at 300 with a 2% dividend yield. Sun, 06 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-05-strong-jobs-and-expensive-oil-complicate-the-fed/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-05-strong-jobs-and-expensive-oil-complicate-the-fed/ Employers added 162,000 jobs in August. Sat, 05 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-04-ai-growth-meets-a-tougher-rate-backdrop/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-04-ai-growth-meets-a-tougher-rate-backdrop/ Broadcom’s AI semiconductor revenue rose 221% to $16.7 billion. Fri, 04 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-03-broadcoms-ai-boom-meets-its-hardest-question/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-03-broadcoms-ai-boom-meets-its-hardest-question/ Broadcom’s AI semiconductor revenue rose 221%. Thu, 03 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-02-ai-is-pulling-chip-demand-forward/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-02-ai-is-pulling-chip-demand-forward/ TSM now expects to buy nearly 2x as much chipmaking equipment as it projected in December. Wed, 02 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-01-oil-above-90-changes-the-rate-debate/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-01-oil-above-90-changes-the-rate-debate/ Oil is above $90. Tue, 01 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-31-oil-above-90-ai-paper-profits-and-a-harder-fed-decision/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-31-oil-above-90-ai-paper-profits-and-a-harder-fed-decision/ Oil is above $90. Mon, 31 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-30-ai-growth-is-running-into-physical-limits/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-30-ai-growth-is-running-into-physical-limits/ About 15 GW of AI compute produced in 2027 cannot be turned on that year, according to the consensus estimate. Sun, 30 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-29-ai-spending-is-surging-and-rates-are-pushing-back/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-29-ai-spending-is-surging-and-rates-are-pushing-back/ Nearly half of the fastest-growing business investment since 2021 is tied to AI. Sat, 29 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-28-ai-growth-is-strong-the-bill-keeps-growing/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-28-ai-growth-is-strong-the-bill-keeps-growing/ Nvidia added roughly $453B in market value in one day, the largest one-day gain recorded in the U.S. Fri, 28 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-27-nvidias-huge-day-comes-with-a-memory-warning/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-27-nvidias-huge-day-comes-with-a-memory-warning/ Nvidia added $442 billion in market value in one day. Thu, 27 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-26-nvidias-growth-is-huge-so-is-the-competition/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-26-nvidias-growth-is-huge-so-is-the-competition/ Nvidia’s quarterly sales more than doubled. Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-25-debt-tariffs-and-ai-face-a-big-test/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-25-debt-tariffs-and-ai-face-a-big-test/ Gold has risen for five straight weeks. Tue, 25 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-24-irens-4-billion-execution-test/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-24-irens-4-billion-execution-test/ IREN has $33.6 million of quarterly AI Cloud revenue. Mon, 24 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-23-ai-is-running-into-the-physical-world/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-23-ai-is-running-into-the-physical-world/ AI customers want roughly 50% more memory than Micron can commit. Sun, 23 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-22-ai-infrastructure-meets-the-cost-of-capital/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-22-ai-infrastructure-meets-the-cost-of-capital/ The first production Vera Rubin systems have reached Microsoft data centers. Yet the announcements disclose neither their cost nor the return Microsoft expects... Sat, 22 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-21-ai-is-becoming-a-test-of-pricing-power-and-capital/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-21-ai-is-becoming-a-test-of-pricing-power-and-capital/ If Nvidia raises GB200 and GB300 prices by as much as 20% to 30% to offset rising memory costs, will customers absorb the increase, or start looking harder at... Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-20-ai-demand-is-real-the-financing-question-is-harder/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-20-ai-demand-is-real-the-financing-question-is-harder/ If AI demand is so effortless, why is Broadcom reportedly exploring a financing package approaching $100 billion to turn chip demand into deployed capacity? Thu, 20 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-19-the-38gw-bottleneck-when-capital-becomes-an-ai-moat/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-19-the-38gw-bottleneck-when-capital-becomes-an-ai-moat/ If US data centers need around 68GW of power between 2026 and 2028, and roughly 38GW is still missing, what is the most valuable AI asset now: the chip, or the... Wed, 19 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-18-when-ai-demand-moves-onto-the-balance-sheet/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-18-when-ai-demand-moves-onto-the-balance-sheet/ Nvidia reportedly may provide up to $105 billion of credit support for the land, power, and buildings behind OpenAI’s planned Ohio facility. What changes when... Tue, 18 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-17-six-year-old-gpus-and-the-new-test-for-ai-investing/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-17-six-year-old-gpus-and-the-new-test-for-ai-investing/ Why are Nvidia A100 GPUs that are already six years old reportedly contracted through 2029? Mon, 17 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-16-broadcoms-real-ai-problem-is-scarcity-not-displacement/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-16-broadcoms-real-ai-problem-is-scarcity-not-displacement/ Broadcom fell about 6% while AMD rose about 6% on a displacement story the available evidence does not establish. Sun, 16 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-15-record-profits-and-the-concentrated-ai-network-behind-them/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-15-record-profits-and-the-concentrated-ai-network-behind-them/ The S&P 500’s 29% earnings surprise falls to 11% without Google and Amazon. Much of their contribution came from unrealized investment markups, giving record... Sat, 15 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-14-ai-compute-is-becoming-a-contracted-asset-class/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-14-ai-compute-is-becoming-a-contracted-asset-class/ Sandisk reportedly has approximately $94 billion of NAND contracts at floor prices. The question is whether AI memory remains a cyclical product or is being... Fri, 14 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-13-scale-is-valuable-only-when-capital-earns-its-keep/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-13-scale-is-valuable-only-when-capital-earns-its-keep/ Netflix expanded its EBIT margin by approximately 10.5 percentage points while increasing cash content spending only 2% annually. That is what valuable scale... Thu, 13 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-12-ai-compute-is-being-repriced-around-scarcity/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-12-ai-compute-is-being-repriced-around-scarcity/ Why would a customer sign through 2029 for an Nvidia GPU introduced in 2020? Wed, 12 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-11-ai-demand-is-real-but-the-balance-sheet-still-decides-who/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-11-ai-demand-is-real-but-the-balance-sheet-still-decides-who/ CoreWeave has approximately $104 billion in backlog and doubled revenue, yet its net loss widened to $626 million. What is an AI customer worth when growth... Tue, 11 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-10-ai-compute-is-becoming-an-asset-class-and-memory-is-taking/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-10-ai-compute-is-becoming-an-asset-class-and-memory-is-taking/ Nvidia wants to mobilize more than $500 billion of third-party capital around hardware it calls an “investable asset class.” But a transferable GPU is not... Mon, 10 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-09-passive-investing-solves-for-effort-not-valuation/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-09-passive-investing-solves-for-effort-not-valuation/ After an 11-fold rise over roughly 15 to 16 years, what does the S&P 500’s past performance prove about buying today at a reported valuation of 40? Sun, 09 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-08-ai-demand-is-becoming-a-national-infrastructure-bet/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-08-ai-demand-is-becoming-a-national-infrastructure-bet/ Firebird plans to deploy 250 MW of NVIDIA AI infrastructure in Armenia and Kazakhstan over the next 12 months. That validates expanding demand for compute. It... Sat, 08 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-07-ai-is-expanding-the-market-but-narrowing-the-margin-for/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-07-ai-is-expanding-the-market-but-narrowing-the-margin-for/ What must go right for SpaceX to turn essentially no AI compute revenue into $235 billion of annualized revenue within eight quarters? Fri, 07 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-06-the-ai-boom-now-has-to-prove-its-economics/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-06-the-ai-boom-now-has-to-prove-its-economics/ How can an AI portfolio remain up approximately 80% for the year and still suffer a forced sale? Thu, 06 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-05-ai-demand-is-real-but-the-price-of-success-is-rising/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-05-ai-demand-is-real-but-the-price-of-success-is-rising/ Western Digital beat every cited operating expectation, and its stock still fell about 12%. Wed, 05 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-04-ai-demand-is-real-but-the-economics-are-uneven/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-04-ai-demand-is-real-but-the-economics-are-uneven/ Palantir grew revenue 93% while generating a 63% adjusted free cash flow margin. At least one company is converting AI demand into realized economics today. Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-03-ai-s-growth-story-is-becoming-a-returns-story/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-03-ai-s-growth-story-is-becoming-a-returns-story/ Microsoft's intelligent cloud grew 32%, while its property, plant and equipment rose from $109 billion to $313 billion. Which number matters more to... Mon, 03 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-02-cheap-multiples-expensive-assumptions/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-02-cheap-multiples-expensive-assumptions/ What does Samsung's 3.2x forward PE 2027 actually mean if the forecast behind it requires roughly $1.25 trillion in operating profit over three years? Sun, 02 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-01-the-index-looks-calm-but-the-crowded-trades-do-not/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-01-the-index-looks-calm-but-the-crowded-trades-do-not/ How can the S&P 500 fall less than 1% while semiconductors lose 20% and a leveraged hedge fund reportedly loses 67%? Sat, 01 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-07-31-july-s-technology-divide-ai-returns-financial-strength-and/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-07-31-july-s-technology-divide-ai-returns-financial-strength-and/ Amazon and Microsoft are being rewarded for AI returns investors can see today. Meta and Apple must still prove that spending and product expansion will earn... Fri, 31 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-07-30-ai-gets-cheaper-more-agentic-and-more-investable/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-07-30-ai-gets-cheaper-more-agentic-and-more-investable/ AI is shifting from a research tool into an economic operating layer. Agents are beginning to trade, transact, and coordinate through programmable payment... Thu, 30 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-07-29-ai-infrastructure-keeps-expanding-even-as-the-market-tests/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-07-29-ai-infrastructure-keeps-expanding-even-as-the-market-tests/ AI infrastructure is still expanding across cloud, memory, custom silicon, power, cooling, and networking. At the same time, the market is testing the trade... Wed, 29 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-07-28-ai-infrastructure-pullback-tests-conviction-not-demand/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-07-28-ai-infrastructure-pullback-tests-conviction-not-demand/ Today’s market tension was not that AI demand disappeared. It was that investors became more selective about who funds the buildout, who earns from it, and how... Tue, 28 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-07-23-ais-boom-becomes-a-cash-flow-compute-and-control-test/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-07-23-ais-boom-becomes-a-cash-flow-compute-and-control-test/ The AI revolution is still accelerating. But the harder question is not whether demand is real. It is whether the companies chasing it can convert massive... Thu, 23 Jul 2026 12:00:00 +0000