McDonald’s trades at 300 with a 2% dividend yield.
The 10-year Treasury is at 4.77.
That changes the price investors may accept for slow growth.
McDonald’s Needs a Lower Price
McDonald’s dividend per share is 7.44. Its dividend payout ratio is 100%.
The business is growing 5%. Earnings are growing 6%, with help from buybacks.
The speaker considers growth above single digits unlikely.
That is steady growth. But at a stock price of 300, the speaker finds the valuation hard to accept.
When interest rates were at 2%, the speaker considered a 2% dividend yield acceptable. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.77, investors may demand a higher yield from McDonald’s.
That requires a lower stock price.
The Valuation Scenarios Land Far Below 300
The speaker’s first scenario assumes 5% dividend growth and a 25 terminal multiple. That equals a 4% dividend yield.
The stated intrinsic value is below 200.
Requiring a 5% dividend yield puts the present value far from the current stock price.
Using a 15 terminal multiple produces a value-investing present value of “around 115, 16.”
The speaker says McDonald’s is far from offering a margin of safety. He describes it as an interest-rate play and says the expensive stock should be avoided.
Peter Lynch’s warning was:
“Avoid these slow growers if they are not priced at extremely bargain prices.”
Risky Borrowers Are Paying More Too
Higher rates are also reaching companies that rely heavily on borrowing.
The Financial Times reports that borrowing costs in the riskiest parts of corporate America have reached their highest levels since the aftermath of Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs last year.
The recent US Treasury sell-off is adding pressure. The most indebted companies are feeling it.
McDonald’s and risky borrowers face different problems.
McDonald’s investors may demand more income from the stock. Lenders demand more from weak borrowers.
Both pressures come back to the price of money.
Tim Cook May Still Loom Large at Apple
Bloomberg News says early signs from Cupertino indicate Tim Cook will still loom large at Apple.
Mark Gurman says the ex-CEO’s new $2 million pay package does not dispel that notion.
How much influence Cook retains is still an open question.
A Cautious Test for SaaS Investments
The @newmoneyyoutube excerpt offers a simple test for SaaS investments.
Look for reasons not to buy.
Then ask what happens if something goes wrong. Could it destroy the investment, or would it merely reduce the return?
That is the full case presented. The excerpt provides no company names, figures, or supporting example.
An Automated Options Desk Leaves the Decision to the User
The Grok Bot note describes an 8-bot options workflow using live market data from Public.
The proposed bots would:
- Scan cash-secured puts
- Compare LEAPS
- Manage covered calls
- Track volatility
- Check earnings and regulatory events
- Price rolls
- Enforce portfolio rules
- Assemble one brief
The proposed Desk Lead never places trades. It hands the brief to the user, who makes the final decision.
Agreements Were Announced, Changed, and Reopened
According to @geopoliticaleconomyreport, Donald Trump praised the USMCA from his first presidential term as “the best and most important trade deal ever.”
The speaker says that after returning for his second term in 2025, Trump decided the agreement was no longer good enough.
In July 2026, the US government announced that it would not renew the USMCA.
The speaker also says Trump announced on August 18 that proposed 50% tariffs against Canada were paused and that the countries had a deal, subject to final documents.
The speaker characterizes this as part of a longer pattern of announcing agreements, changing terms, and demanding further concessions.
The same source draws a comparison with Iran.
The speaker says Iran participated in what it thought were peace talks with the Trump administration in 2025. In June, while those talks were underway, the US and Israel launched a surprise war that lasted two weeks.
The speaker says the US and Iran signed an MOU in June 2026 to try to end the war.
In July, Trump announced that the MOU was over. The speaker says Trump unilaterally violated it and restarted the war against Iran.
McDonald’s Has Two Rate-Dependent Outcomes
If rates fall, the speaker says McDonald’s investors could make another 20-30% on top of the dividend.
If rates remain where they are, he expects the stock to fall even if the business performs well.