Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle are projected to invest $789 billion in 2026, up from $412 billion in 2025. Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello put that increase at 89%.
The spending figure is clear. The revenue picture behind it is harder to read.
AI Spending Is Rising Faster Than the Revenue Picture Is Clearing
Bilello expects investment by the five companies to reach $1.2 trillion a year in 2029. The financing plans are growing, too. The Wall Street Journal reported that Broadcom is seeking more than $50 billion for OpenAI’s custom AI chip program. Those talks are preliminary, and the amount could change.
Then came a question about OpenAI’s revenue. The Financial Times reported that OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue was approaching $50 billion at the end of September. A figure of roughly $70 billion was widely reported last month.
The brief attributed the difference to accounting methods, and OpenAI declined to comment. Until that difference is understood, the two figures do not offer a clean comparison.
The report weighed on sentiment toward AI infrastructure. Several semiconductor stocks fell roughly 5% to 7%.
AI Products Are Arriving as Investors Test Returns
Meta introduced a personal AI agent app that can help with appointments and forms. It offers a free tier, plus $20 and $100 monthly plans. Meta is also exploring a cut of shopping transactions made through agents, though it has not settled on a plan.
Meta faces pressure to show returns on its AI spending, along with scrutiny over privacy and safety. Users who do not want their interactions used to train Meta’s models must opt out.
Zeta also unveiled AthenaOS. It said it has begun developing a specialized AI chip and supporting data center infrastructure, with general availability targeted for Q1 2027.
Tom Lee said investors he met were skeptical of the AI boom. He expects third-quarter earnings to restore confidence, but acknowledged that setbacks, funding costs or pulled AI IPOs could bring more selling.
There are bullish calls, too. Goldman Sachs upgraded Palantir to Buy with a $230 target, pointing to sovereign AI, enterprise applications and Palantir’s Forward Deployed Engineer model. Barclays began coverage at Buy with a $265 target.
The market’s AI lead is narrow. One post put the AI Winners Index up 58% this year, against 5% for the S&P 500 Ex-AI Enablers Index. Bilello said Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft made up a record 21.7% of the S&P 500, while its top ten holdings neared 40%.
Earnings expectations have climbed alongside those gains. Bilello put expected S&P 500 earnings-per-share growth for 2026 at 34%, up from about 15% at the start of the year. Earnings season starts with banks, then moves to large technology companies.
Monish Pabrai drew attention to the businesses behind two stock prices. His post put Meta at $1.8 trillion with over $130 billion in trailing operating cash flow, and Apple at $5 trillion with $144 billion. He said Meta is growing much faster. That is Pabrai’s comparison, not something the prices alone establish.
Stocks rose Friday: the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, the Dow 0.8% and the Nasdaq 0.6%. The Russell 2000 fell 0.9%.
Oil, Rates and Debt Add Pressure
Brent crude settled near $104, even after President Trump ruled out U.S. attacks on Iran before the November midterms and announced a diesel supply deal with Putin.
The September Federal Reserve minutes showed most officials expected another rate hike by year-end. Almost all saw inflation risks tilted upward. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed near 5.24%.
Household figures show the pressure. Early October consumer sentiment fell to 46.3, its fifth straight monthly decline, while year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7%. In August, the average credit card interest rate reached 22.36% and the average rate on a five-year new car loan reached 7.54%.
The jobs figure needs care. A market brief said payroll reports were revised lower in 16 of the last 20 months, removing 793,000 jobs in total. That gives reason to be cautious with September’s initially reported gain of 29,000 jobs. The next September inflation report and the start of bank earnings are the immediate events markets are watching.
Bitcoin fell to around $81,000 amid what a market brief described as a broad move away from risk. The brief also cited roughly $485 million in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows on October 7.
China’s central bank officially bought 23 tonnes of gold in September, bringing its reported holdings to 2,410 tonnes. Separately, @value-investing argued that gold could offer partial protection against a possible U.S. debt crisis. @georgegammon offered a different argument about sovereign bond yields: in his scenarios, rates depend more on growth and inflation expectations than on debt and deficit levels.
France’s 10-year borrowing cost recently reached about 4.9%. A government-commissioned report projected a deficit of 6.8% of GDP by 2030 under current policies. Prime Minister Sebastian Leornu has proposed €43 billion of cuts and tax rises for one year in the 2027 budget, but lacks a parliamentary majority. How much survives is open.
Incumbents Face Changes Across Several Industries
SpaceX agreed to acquire nationwide 800 MHz spectrum licenses and plans to combine satellites with a ground-based mobile network. The FCC approved 15,000 satellites for direct-to-device service. The spectrum purchase still needs FCC approval, and its financial terms were not disclosed. On Friday, a market recap put T-Mobile down about 13%, AT&T about 10% and Verizon about 9%.
Lee raised a separate question about banks. He said they focus on older, wealthier customers while younger generations see finance differently, and compared the potential change to wireless disrupting traditional telecom in the 1990s.
Elsewhere, Starbucks reportedly explored buying Chipotle to help its international expansion through Starbucks’ store network, though financing, integration and execution are challenges. Humana rose about 12% after better Medicare Advantage star ratings and an analyst upgrade. Delta slipped after missing earnings and cutting guidance; higher fuel costs outweighed premium demand. Apple fell on reports of reduced component orders for its next iPhone.
Trump told Bombardier it must build in America to access the U.S. market. Bombardier pointed to employees in more than 20 states, sites in 10 states and American-made aircraft components. On the wider supply-chain question, @geopoliticaleconomyreport argued that China’s position in critical minerals and rare earths makes a quick U.S. break impractical. The speaker called the current trade-war pause temporary.
Fidelity said the average 401(k) balance rose 10.5% from March through June. Participants in their 30s averaged $75,200; those in their 40s averaged $156,800.
For AI stocks, @equityempireresearch warned that unusually low stock correlation could reverse in a selloff, pulling strong stocks down with weak ones. The speaker explicitly said this was neither a sell signal nor a way to time a crash. @value-investing offered a conditional 2028 S&P 500 scenario if AI investment fails to earn the expected return: earnings of 200, a P/E of 15 and an index level of 3,000.
Lee expects third-quarter earnings to restore confidence while acknowledging reasons for more selling. The two reported OpenAI revenue figures still need the accounting difference understood before they can be compared cleanly.