$2.0 billion has left $DRAM so far in October. The fund is down 23% this month, yet it remains up 70% since inception.
That is a sharp reversal after a much bigger rise.
Money Keeps Leaving Memory
October is on track to be $DRAM’s largest monthly withdrawal since its April 2nd launch. It would also be its third straight month of outflows, following $400 million in August and $1.6 billion in September.
Another $105 million left last week, the ninth consecutive weekly withdrawal. $DRAM trades near its lowest level since early May, after reaching a 190% gain in mid-June. The 2x leveraged long Memory ETF, $RAM, is down 66% since its June 24th debut.
The withdrawals and price declines point in the same direction. But $DRAM’s remaining gain matters: the trade had run a long way before it pulled back.
Meta’s Agent Asks for Trust
Meta introduced a personal agent app on Tuesday, using its Muse Spark family of models. It offers free, $20 a month, and $100 a month plans, depending on usage.
Meta says the agent can book appointments, fill out forms, and monitor home security camera feeds. That puts it close to sensitive parts of daily life. Meta says the agent works in an isolated environment that does not see actual passwords or payment details, and asks before sensitive actions.
Users who do not want their interactions used to train Meta’s AI models must opt out. David Singleton, Meta’s vice president of engineering, said the company will scrub “critical personally identifying information” before using interactions from people who do not opt out.
Meta plans to offer the app to U.S. consumers on iOS, Android, and the web, then through WhatsApp and eventually Ray-Ban Meta glasses. A report says Wall Street is pressing Meta to show returns on its AI investments. Whether people will pay for the agent, and whether they will trust Meta’s stated safeguards, remain open questions.
Bloomberg reports that Anthropic is reportedly considering a massive IPO. The risk case described alongside that possibility includes fierce competition, the threat of mass unemployment, and possible sweeping regulation.
A Good Business Still Has a Price
One commentator’s stock review keeps returning to the price paid for a business.
For Deckers, the commentator says Hoka’s growth has slowed to a single-digit rate, while global awareness remains low. Deckers is buying back shares and pays no dividend. Using forecast earnings per share, 10% annual buybacks, a terminal multiple of 15, and a 10% expected return, the commentator puts its intrinsic value close to the stock price. Faster international growth is the bull case; stabilization is the bear case.
The same commentator cites 3% growth at Domino’s Pizza and stagnating international growth. Its business yield has moved from 4% to 6%, while its valuation has fallen from 40 to 16. The verdict is fair, though not cheap.
Lululemon has a P/E ratio of eight and high cash flows in the review, but the commentator says the new CEO’s repositioning is uncertain. TKO is described as growing 10-15% while priced too high for that growth. Clorox’s sales are falling despite a goal of 3 to 5% growth, and the commentator calls its 6% yield risky.
The property calls have different risks. The commentator finds BXP’s valuation attractive, but insufficient to offset its risk and 5% yield. The review cites 15 billion of debt, falling funds from operations, and 89% occupancy at Wilshire. Camden Property Trust is called fairly priced, though the commentator describes its debt-to-equity presentation as “misleading.” Another apartment REIT is called fairly priced with a 4% yield.
The commentator finds FactSet harder to assess because of uncertainty around data management and AI. CoStar is called too expensive; Gartner and McCormick, too risky. Huntington Ingalls Industries is described as a war hedge with many orders and some issues. The review says AES is being acquired and says management described the acquisition as 30% higher even though the stock remained 50% below its peak. Lennox’s guidance was cut from 25 to 24.
Albemarle shows how far apart the possible outcomes can be. The commentator points to falling lithium prices, mining projects still coming online, and demand projections ranging from 15% to 40%. In the commentator’s scenarios, 15% demand means another 70% stock decline; 40% means the stock doubles.
A separate commentator uses Hermes, down 50% over a year and a half; Aptiv, down 70% over five years; Nike, down 77% over five years; and Micron, up 10 times in less than a year, to make a price-versus-value point. The commentator warns against paying any price for hope in AI stocks.
One investor says he rejects an idea quickly if something troubles him. Ideas that survive face a checklist of roughly 200 questions. He calls leverage the biggest reason investments fail, and misunderstanding a business’s advantage another. He puts more weight on management’s past decisions than its promises. He also says selling too soon has been his biggest investing mistake, and would keep an exceptional business unless he sees clear evidence of long-term decline.
Savings Grow, While an Oil Claim Points to Disruption
Fidelity says the average 401(k) balance rose 10.5% from March through June. Participants in their 30s averaged $75,200; those in their 40s averaged $156,800. Including employer contributions, holders invested an average 14.4% of pay, just under Fidelity’s recommended 15%.
Fidelity’s benchmarks are one year of income saved by age 30, three times income by age 40, and 10 times by age 67. They include savings outside a 401(k). Under an article’s 7% return assumption, investing $250 a month from age 22 reaches about $953,680 by age 67. Starting at 40 reaches $240,672.
On oil, one commentator claims the war has disrupted 37% of globally traded supply. The commentator says about 8% passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait before the war started again, about 20% passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the US started its war, and the Suez Canal accounts for another 9%. The commentator attributes to the International Energy Agency a description of this as the largest oil supply crisis in history.
Back in memory, withdrawals and prices have reversed sharply. $DRAM is still up 70% since inception.