The S&P 500 is 0.2% from its all-time high set on Tuesday. Yet 84% of its stocks are at least 10% below their own highs.
The index is close to a record. Most of the stocks inside it are not.
Most Stocks Are Far Below Their Highs
For many stocks, the decline is much deeper. 59% are down at least 20% from their highs. 41% are down more than 30%, and 17% are down more than 50%.
This reaches across sectors, though the size of the decline varies. In Real Estate, 97% of stocks are at least 10% below their highs. The figures are 96% in Materials, 94% in Utilities, and 92% in Consumer Discretionary.
Energy has held up relatively better, but 62% of its stocks are still at least 10% below their highs. The figures are 70% for Healthcare and 72% for Information Technology.
Higher Yields Meet AI’s Demand for Cash
@value-investing says the ten-year Treasury yield is 5.3%, up from 4% a year earlier, even as the tech-driven S&P 500 reaches highs.
The speaker says higher yields are increasing government interest payments and will expand deficits. They also argue that AI is pushing stocks higher while demanding huge amounts of capital. As one example, they say SpaceX is borrowing 50 billion to buy more Nvidia chips.
In their view, that competition for cash puts upward pressure on interest rates. They name a recession, falling earnings, an AI bubble bursting, a falling stock market, and renewed private equity trouble as possibilities. They say none has happened yet.
Europe’s Political Position and Energy Trade
@geopoliticaleconomyreport argues that the US has subordinated Europe politically and through energy trade.
The speaker points to British newspaper reports from the 1970s about the CIA and the 1967 coup in Greece. They also cite a 2023 European Council on Foreign Relations paper warning of the “art of vassalization.” In the speaker’s account, Europe was already subordinate under Biden. They describe Trump and Ursula von der Leyen in the same terms.
On energy, the speaker describes a Wall Street Journal report about Trump administration pressure on Europe to buy billions of dollars of US natural gas. They say Eurostat data show the US has become the EU’s largest LNG exporter. The speaker also claims Trump is threatening more tariffs unless Europe buys more US oil and natural gas.
A Rule for Falling Stocks
@fundstrat_direct describes a personal rule: reevaluate a falling stock quickly. If it is not working, take a small loss and consider buying it again later.
He says it has been a great month and hopes October brings further upside. That hope sits beside the breadth figures: the S&P 500 is near its high, while most of its stocks remain well below theirs.